by S.A. Mohd Saari
The current scenario
Just sometime ago, IBM gained millions of dollars worth of publicity when Deep Blue beat world champion Gary Kasparov in a chess duel. Was it SURPRISE for 1997, even as we see the computer industry advancing at exponential rates ever since it was introduced? A study in 1992 concluded that there are 140 million PCs around, 1 for every 40 person. Ten years before, it had been 1 to 800. A decade before that, it had been 1 to 100,000.
By the year 2000, it may possibly be that PCs (if they still existed) may occupy half or even more of the worlds population. The computer has beaten us in a game of chess today. Will we see the day when these ferocious PCs succeed in other of the many ‘life-games’ as well? Then, might we question: ‘Who are the brains in the society?’
The people behind it
The fact remains that for every successful PCs around there are human endeavours behind it. Feelings, intuition, innovation and many human/life-aspects are still far from the PCs capabilities. Could the PCs recreate or even simulate the driving force behind Bill Gates, Steve Wozniak, Denis Ritchie and many others of the like to revolutionise the computer industry is the question to ask? There were visions…and there were brains to drive them to reality. In 1980’s, Gates with Paul Allen made Microsoft’s MS-DOS the Operating Systems for IBM’s first PC and the standard for other PCs. They never looked back from then. Today, Gates is notably the richest man on earth and Microsoft…the respected & feared Giant of the software industry. And must we forget the co-founders of the IC (Integrated Circuit) Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce. Noyce later went to confound the microprocessor giant manufacturer Intel Corp. in 1968. They’re many others of course. Dan Bricklin, the father of the spreadsheet and Mitch Kapor(and Jonathan Sachs) who developed this further with Lotus 1-2-3, Bjarne Stroustrup the man behind C++, Tim Berners-Lee who created the Internet, Marc Andreesen (Netscape), Steve Jobs&Wozniack…the list goes on and on. Then there are people like us (the end-user), the prime motivation for the development of PCs and the software industry.
The organisation behind it : Industry
The border-less world witnesses the PCs entering into an ever-broadening market and into the lives of consumers. And the ones that have a tight grip on this are the industries. In 1992, a research group Cahners economics rates the industry as the single largest industry in the US economy. There are probably millions of companies within this ever-increasing industry. Just search the net and you shall see…There are fierce battles among the Giants of the industry to control the consumer, to lead the technology and to set standards of the PC. In 1960/70’s, IBM was the feared giant. Today, we see Microsoft war against Netscape, Oracle and others. Intel Corp. racing the x86 architecture with new versions of Pentiums (plus MMX) against the RISC architecture PowerPC, all trying to reach GigaHetz speed by the end of the century. Intel still has a large market share, though we see Cyrix, Digital Corp and AMD suing it over patent rights. There are countless other examples, basically ranging from every component/possible components of the PC: the development of the DVD (digital versatile discs) and the Recordable CDs, the standards for buses parallel (SCSI) and serial (USB, Fire Wire, SAA & FC-AL). The PC industry is growing at a dazzling yet dizzying rate. Whether some technology, will stay in the market (and race) is quite a mystery. Many diversifying technologies are making new paths everyday. Whether a company takes up the standard and develops supporting technologies will also play its role. Then again how certain is it that the PCs will last? Even the PCs of today might be overrun by network Computers (NCs). The emerging of Java and Sun’s development of Pico-Java architecture might signal a new era in network computers.
Laws & Patents
Two popularised legal aspects with the PCs development; apart from its technology is the Patent and antitrust (monopolistic) laws. There are many incidents of allegations of anti-competitive practices and patent suits. In 1969, The US Department of Justice filed suits against IBM over anti-competitive practices. In 1990, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) investigated allegations of anti-competitive practices in Microsoft. There were many other cases of allegations throughout the industry. A monopoly, it seems may strategically, maintain a discriminatory distribution of software and related support for a single priced hardware, introduce products in the competitive market with unusually low profit returns, discriminate allowances in favour of certain markets in an attempt to preclude customers from that market. With, no laws and enforcement to curb these unhealthy practices, we might just see some of the good companies in the industry loose out and die away. Are we taking for granted that these companies are in many respects providing wonderful services as well as providing an element of competition & development in the PC industry?
Patent laws vary from country to country. The question here is, should we allow patent rights to stagnate the developments of the PC technology? In the UK, under the Copyright, Design and Patterns Act 1988, design right expires 15 years after the design was recorded in a design document or an article was made for design and 10 years if the design was made available for sale within 5 years from that. 15/10 years is too long a time in terms of the PC technology. The PC industry is evolving rapidly makes it hard to keep track with the current technology and developments. Law enforces will have to ensure that no company rises above the law. The law must be dynamic as well, to maintain justice as the PC industry penetrates into the future and new technologies are being defined. Just imagine of all the issues that needed to be addressed (privacy, security, environment…).
The Impact On Society
"There isn’t a student now that isn’t going be hitting a keyboard in next 20 years; they might as well start learning now",
Dr.Robert McIntosh, Conference of the Association for Computing Machinery 1970.
It was such a statement 27 years ago. Is it now as it claims, a reality? In many respects yes… The society now, as social scientist claims is or has gone into transition from the ‘industrial society’ to the ‘information society’, be it from the technological, economic, occupational, spatial or cultural aspects. The PCs are put at the same level with other necessities: the car, the phone and the TV. It has entered into our homes and offices. It looks as if it aims to stay. It now affects our value systems and trends as never before. There are software applications to practically help in every aspect of our lives. Desktop publishing, graphics design etc, has been made tremendously easier. Everyone it seems is forced into recognising its presence. It has gone into the fields of education, business, politics, entertainment, medicine, finance, government, travel etc. Even, the physically disabled members of the society can play its part in it. In 1970’s SICCAPH (Special Committee on Computer Handicapped) noted that number of blind programmers has grown form a dozen to nearly 500 with work. Wonder what the statistics are now? The common man with no competent knowledge of the PC will be at the extreme disadvantage. Will this then start an era; whereby a new generation is bred in which winner takes all? Or is it a virtual community whose only means of socialising and trade is through the telephone cables? Or will create new Cyber-Villains across the globe (remember Kevin Mitnick…anyone)?
Working Environment …Hazardous to Health?
With the transition to an information society, more and more people are going to be occupied with computer. Imagine the impact it would be on the people who sit in front of the terminal for an average 6-8 hours day in and day out in crammed offices. How would they feel about the PC…enemy no.1? It may seem that every single part of the PC pose danger threat to your health. The VDU gives you Computer Vision Syndrome (CVS), the long hours serving the PC results in strain/stress disorders, referred as repetitive strain/stress disorders (RSI). RSI can take on many forms: namely Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS), bursitis, tendonitis, and tenosynovitis, frozen nerves, epicondylitis and neural tension. Carpal Tunnel Syndrome is a form of nerve damage, whereby nerves that go trough the wrist and fingers get trapped by inflamed muscles. In 1993, employees with CTS sued Apple, AT&T, Digital Equipment Corp & IBM. In one case, the victim was awarded £3.3 billion against Digital Corp. Is this not signal of the seriousness of the matter? Apart from that, the workers risk the harmful effects of electromagnetic radiation (EM), radio-frequency wave emission (rfi), ozone and sound pollution. Studies in 1970's indicate possible EM relations to leukaemia, breast cancer, miscarriages, cataracts and debilitating stress. A case in United Airlines, San Francisco showed 24 out of 48 of its staffs had abnormal pregnancies. Now, what is being done? The Swedish National Board for Measurement and Testing (MPR) as well as the Swedish office-worker’s union (TOC) has set the standards for EM emission in monitors. There also exist a US federal regulation FCC Part 15 that predetermines the maximum allowable rfi emission. In the UK, the Health & Safety Executive has released ‘A pain in Your Workplace’ consisting of regulations to improve the ergonomics of the workplace. The society, on the other hand, should choose the right PC components and educate itself on the healthy practices of the PC.
The Environment: Building A better Place ...?
There are an estimated 140 million PCs around. PCs are expected to have short useful lifetime. Consumers? Well …constantly upgrading to a new and more powerful generation. Each PC, on average would consist of 35 pounds of plastic, 25 pounds of metal and 20 pounds of glasses and assorted materials. Digital Equipment Corporation Environmental Division estimates that 150 million PCs will be at disposal in 2005. Power-wise, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that on average a PC consumes 451 kWh annually. Also, 40% of PCs are ON 24 hours day in and out. They consume 2059 kWh annually. This will require 420 * 10 million gallons of oil for power generation. In 1992, the Association for Information & Image Management estimates 1 trillion papers are used for American businesses. Globally, this means 4 billion 500 sheet reams = 10 million tons = 180 million trees annually = 4000 square forest are consumed annually. The manufactures of PCs require use of hazardous & toxic chemicals in every stage of its components (i.e. chips, boards etc) production. Arsine, polychlorinated biphenyl, glycol ether (reproductive toxin), super corrosive hydrofluoric acid, phenol, phosphine gas, diborane gas, cyanide salts, metal ethyl ketone peroxide, krypton-85, methyl chloroform, trichloroethylene (TCE), CFCs and the list goes on…all represent possible dangerous acids, solvents, toxic materials, carcinogenic and ozone depleting elements in their own right. All of these come in a pack and parcel together with wasted printer paper, toner catridge, extra kilowatt-hours atmospheric & water pollution, ozone depletion and solid waste.
Now…in view of the enormous pollution the PC industry can generate, actions have been taken to reduce the pollution. In 1993, 200 PC manufacturers (including IBM, Compaq, and Apple) signed up for the EPA Energy Star programme to produce Energy Star-compliant computers, monitors and printers. EPA also had a programme called ‘33/50’ in which electronics manufacturers are required to reduce 17 toxic chemicals by 33% at the end of 1992 and 50% in 1995. There were/are many attempts: namely to reduce and eliminate the use of CFCs, improve worker safety & health and developing green (‘all-vegetable’) chips. One organisation, the Silicon Valley Toxics Coalition (SVTC) even went out to draft a set of guidelines named ‘the Silicon Principles’ in which PC makers can use to reduce use of chemicals, improve health & safety and design environmentally responsible goods…to make this world a better place.
The shapes to come
The PC industry is set to grow and grow. There will always be someone out there…reducing the instruction throughput, increasing speed and storage capacity of the PCs to come. There will always be more and more Giga and Tera (Bytes and Hertz)…as we set for the next century. PCs of today might seem as just midgets to tomorrow’s generations. The article merely attempts to view the PC from a social perspective. Then may we attempt to predict PCs of tomorrow? And will man be the ‘brains of society’ then? The future is still uncertain…but just a few days ago Kasparov announced his intention to fight Deep Blue again. Deep Blue? Well, it could not be contacted for comments…
20 MAY 1997
Imperial College of Science, Technology & Medicine
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